Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, October 8th

Thursday’s bond market has opened up slightly to hold yesterday’s late gains. Stocks are showing relatively minor losses of 9 points in the Dow and 118 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (5.28%), which with yesterday’s late gains should allow for a modest improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates. While we saw some clearly favorable movement in Treasury securities yesterday afternoon, mortgage bonds did not move in tandem.

2/32

Bonds

30 yr - 5.28%

9

Dow

51,170

118

NASDAQ

27,428

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction went very well, especially considering the current negative momentum in the broader bond market. The 1:00 ET results announcement showed multiple benchmarks pointing towards a stronger demand for the securities compared to other recent sales. This allows us to label the report good news for rates because a strong demand for long-term government debt should carry into mortgage bonds also. We did see a positive reaction to the results yesterday, but the impact on mortgage rates was fairly minimal. If today’s 30-year Bond auction is also met with a strong demand from investors, we could see strength in bonds after results are posted at 1:00 PM ET.

Medium

Neutral

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Also released late yesterday were the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting. They didn’t give us any major surprises, but did support the theory that the Fed is highly likely to make one more rate hike before the end of the year. That leaves either the October 27-28 or December 8-9 meetings. The minutes failed to draw a reaction in the bond market. It was the auction results that were the primary reason for yesterday’s afternoon bond gains, not the minutes.

Medium

Negative

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

This morning’s release of last week’s unemployment figures showed 197,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made. This was a bit lower than the previous week’s upwardly revised 199,000 and short of the 200,000 that was expected, but not enough of a change to raise concern in the bond market. The weekly decline technically makes the report bad news for bonds even though it hasn’t influenced this morning’s mortgage pricing.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

The final relevant economic release comes at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning when the University of Michigan posts their Index of Consumer Sentiment for October. It will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which helps us measure consumer willingness to spend. If a consumer is more confident in their own financial situation, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. On the other hand, if they are growing more concerned about their job security or finances, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and, therefore, can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show an unchanged reading of 48.1. A much lower reading would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning consumer confidence usually translates into slower economic growth.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.