Tuesday, October 15th
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory even though stocks are showing sizable gains. The Dow is currently up 185 points while the Nasdaq is up 57 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (1.71%), which should improve this morning’s rates by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Friday’s early pricing. Stocks were open for trading yesterday, but the bond market was closed for the Columbus Day holiday.
7/32
Bonds
30 yr - 1.71%
185
Dow
26,972
57
NASDAQ
8,106
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
High
Unknown
There is nothing of importance being released today. The rest of the week brings us five pieces of economic data that are relevant to mortgage rates. Only one of them is considered to be highly important though. That will come tomorrow with the release of September's Retail Sales report at 8:30 AM ET. This highly important data measures consumer level sales and is very important to the markets because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If consumer level spending is strong, overall economic growth is likely to be stronger, making bonds less attractive to investors. If we see weaker than expected readings in this report, the bond market should respond favorably and mortgage rates will probably improve. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% increase in sales. Good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing would be a much smaller increase.
Medium
Unknown
Also tomorrow, we will get the Fed’s Beige Book that summarizes economic activity throughout the country by Federal Reserve region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during mid-afternoon afternoon trading. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but the 2:00 PM ET release is still worth watching.
---
Unknown
Overall, tomorrow is the key day of the week for mortgage rates due to the importance of the retail sales data. Friday will likely be the calmest day for rates. As we saw last week, trade-related news can take centerstage at any moment. Therefore, it would be prudent to watch the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.