Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, April 27th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory due to weekend news about the Iran war. Stocks are showing losses also, pushing the Dow lower by 48 points and the Nasdaq down 74 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (4.31%), but strength midday Friday should allow for an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday improvement Friday, you may see a modest increase this morning to reflect the negative open.

3/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.31%

48

Dow

49,181

74

NASDAQ

24,762

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Negative

Iran War Headlines

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. Weekend news from the Middle East is driving this morning’s bond trading. The failure of Iran and U.S. to restart peace talks that were expected to take place this weekend has renewed concerns about how and when the war will end. This has oil prices moving higher, fueling inflation concerns that make bonds less appealing to investors. Fortunately, the back and forth headlines over the past month that have been wearing down traders are allowing for a subtle response this morning instead of a strong negative open for bonds.

High

Unknown

None

The remainder of the week has seven monthly and quarterly economic reports set for release. There are also two Treasury auctions and another FOMC meeting for the markets to digest. Corporate earnings season is in full swing, meaning sizable moves in stocks that are fueled by better or worse than expected earnings could affect bond trading also. Furthermore, headlines regarding the Iran war will also likely come into play multiple days this week.

Low

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Even though there are no economic releases this morning, we have the 1:00 PM ET results announcement from today’s 5-year Treasury Note auction to watch. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be the benchmarks showing a strong demand for the securities. However, this week’s auctions are both for short-term debt and won’t have the same impact on rates that sales of long-term debt do because mortgage pricing is based on long-term securities. If there is a reaction to the sale results, it will show during early afternoon trading. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 7-year Notes are sold.

Medium

Unknown

Consumer Confidence Index

April's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will begin this week’s economic calendar at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index is considered to be an indicator of future consumer spending. The Conference Board surveys 5,000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. On the other hand, if they are concerned about issues such as job security or income, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and a potential slowdown would make bonds more appealing to investors. Forecasts show a decline in confidence from March's 91.8. The smaller the reading, the better it is for mortgage pricing.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Overall, Wednesday is a good choice for most important day for mortgage rates because of the FOMC meeting, but there is a real chance that we will see the biggest move in rates Thursday after the GDP and inflation reports are posted. No day stands out as a good candidate for calmest since there is at least one item listed each day of the week and several days have multiple events. If still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future, it would be prudent to keep a close eye on the markets because we are expecting to see plenty of movement in rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.